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Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist and senior vice president of research, forecasts that 4.78 million existing homes will be sold, prices will remain stable, and Atlanta will be the top real estate market to watch in 2023 and beyond.

“Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines,” Yun said in prepared remarks. “However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10% to 15%.”

Yun unveiled his forecast this week during NAR’s fourth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit. Among other points, he predicted that home sales will decline by 6.8% compared to 2022 and the median home price will reach $385,800 – an increase of just 0.3% from this year.

He also forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will settle at 5.7% and rent prices will rise 5% next year.

Ray Costello, managing director, Property Inspect US, tells that if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates as aggressively as they have over the past eight months, the NAR forecast of a 6.8% decline seems on point.

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